I hope you guys did not watch my video predicting upsets for Northern Iowa, Hawai’i, and Penn. My picks went 0-3 — somewhat understandable considering the general lack of upsets in the tournament — but what’s embarrassing is they weren’t even close, losing by a combined 80 points.

Long story short, apologies if you listened to my advice … and I’m gonna need a new title for the video next year!

– Rodger Sherman

The big guys are too big

On Tuesday, I wrote an 8,000 word post previewing every 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16-seed in the men’s NCAA Tournament. Pretty big waste of time! By Friday, all but one of those teams had been eliminated. (The, uh, High Point entry is still pretty good!)

Last year’s men’s NCAA tournament was perhaps the chalkiest in the event’s history: All top-4 seeds won their first-round games, only one double-digit seed made the Sweet 16 (and it was John Calipari’s Arkansas), and all four 1-seeds made the Final Four.

This year is starting off even chalkier. Last year we got two 12-over-5 upsets in the first round; this year, just one.

What’s going on out there? Is Cinderella dead?

Friday was perhaps the chalkiest day in the history of the event. All 16 betting favorites won. (There were technically two seed-line upsets — 9-seeds Utah State and Miami won their games — but both were expected to win.)
(For good measure, higher seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament also went 16-0 on Friday.)
Every top-4 seed has once again made it to the second round. It’s the first time that has ever happened in back-to-back years.
The only 12-seed to make it out of the first round is High Point, a school so focused on wealth that I feel like Cinderella wouldn’t have been able to afford tuition. (Yesterday’s High Point story was about how the school chartered a private jet for students to attend the game; the students were well-prepared for the experience because the school has a fake airplane interior on campus where students can prepare for the experience of sitting next to to CEOs in business class.)
There were, to be fair, two victories by 11 seeds: TCU’s thrilling comeback over North Carolina and Texas’ win over BYU. But Texas is the richest athletic program in the sport,
I’m not particularly surprised. In fact, I was pretty worried this exact thing would happen. The stats this year indicated a growing gap between high-majors and everybody else.

depressing facts for last-minute bracket tweaks regular season wins by mid-majors over power leagues in 2023: 75 this year: 29 average @kenpom.com rank of 13-seeds in 2023: 83rd This year: 111th Average @kenpom.com net rating of 13-seeds in 2023: +9.76 This year: +5.8 Could be v chalky out there
— Rodger Sherman (@rodger.bsky.social) 2026-03-19T12:57:17.459Z

This comes right after the most upset-heavy era in college hoops history. Just three years ago, I wrote about how more lower-seeded teams were winning in the first round and going deeper into the tournament than before.
The explanation, sadly, is pretty easy. The slew of changes to the sport in recent years (revenue sharing, NIL, ease of player transferring) has made it easier for the most powerful programs in the sport to consolidate their power. (We’re seeing the same gaps forming in college football.) I think the widespread changes initially served as a system shock which threw so many aspects of the sport up in the air that smaller schools were able to exploit some weaknesses, but given a few years they’ve figured it out.
The ability to get paid has also increased the overall talent level in college hoops. 13 of the 14 top picks in ESPN’s latest NBA mock draft were college players, all on separate teams; all 13 made the NCAA Tournament, and 11 of those players were on 11 separate teams which won their first-round games. (A 12th, North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, was injured before the tournament.)
First of all: I love the NCAA Tournament, but if I had to choose between “exciting NCAA Tournament” and “players able to receive money for playing college sports,” I would pick #2 every time. It’s the only ethical choice. It’s a feather next to an anvil on the scales.
Secondly … this has actually been a pretty exciting NCAA Tournament! 16-seed Siena almost beat Duke! 14-seed Wright State was up on Virginia late! 13-seed Cal Baptist almost came back against 4-seed Kansas! 13-seed Hofstra was up double digits on Alabama! 12-seed McNeese was up double digits on Vandy! The results didn’t pan out and the bad guys won in the end, but it’s been a pretty fun couple of days of hoops.
And, well … upsets are supposed to be rare. The blip where this happened all the time was an exception. I wish the little guys won more often, but if that was the case, they wouldn’t be upsets.
I fear this is not something that will be fixed quickly, if ever. So we have to recalibrate our expectations. We have to cherish the few Cinderellas we get; we have to squeeze more out of the the small joys remaining in March. It’s a miracle when schools with less money, fewer fans, and less talented players beat teams with every possible advantage. We have to treat it like one.

No way Oweh!

🇬🇧 (6) Kentucky, 89, 🐴 (11) Santa Clara, 86 (OT)

Friday may not have brought us upsets — but it did bring us one of the greatest finishes in the history of the NCAA Tournament. No whistles, no fouls, no timeouts, no misses. Just 15 seconds of pure hoopsanity.

9 seconds remaining: Otega Oweh spins in the post and hits a game-tying shot for Kentucky.

3 seconds remaining: Santa Clara’s Allen Graves drills a go-ahead three, seemingly giving the Broncos a win in their first tournament appearance since 1996.

0.2 seconds remaining: Oweh hits a 40-foot banked-in buzzer-beater to force overtime.

I could live in those 15 seconds. I think Santa Clara’s players will probably spend a lot of the rest of their lives living in the first 13 or so seconds.

Oweh wears 00 because, you know, he’s Otega Oweh. But now I think it stands for 0.0 seconds remaining. (Big week for the Oweh family — his big brother Odafe just signed a $100 million contract with the Commanders!)

Part of the reason the ending was so good. Like I said, no timeouts — but Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek did try to call timeout as Kentucky was taking the ball out of bounds, which would’ve allowed the Broncos to set up their defense better; instead Kentucky was able to inbound the ball while several players were still celebrating. And like I said, no fouls, but Santa Clara probably should’ve fouled. This was a miracle, a lucky banker over surprisingly tight defense … but fouling in this scenario is a “no miracles” button.

One thing about the hoops in this tournament so far: It’s really, REALLY good. This was the highest-scoring first round of the tournament in decades. We keep having sequences like this — there was a late segment in High Point-Wisconsin with four go-ahead or game-tying shots in 29 seconds; NC State-Texas had a similar stint in the last minute before Tramon Mark’s game-winner. We might have had more upsets in past, but we also had more game-ending sequences where nobody could hit a shot.

🐊 (1) Florida, 114, 🌾👀 Prairie View A&M, 55

In case you weren’t convinced enough that life was hard for the little guys: Florida beat Prairie View A&M by 59, the second-largest margin of victory in tournament history. (The largest: Loyola-Chicago, 111, Tennessee Tech, 42, back in 1963.) Prairie View’s head coach asked for help from the Lord during his in-game interview; the big guy apparently had other stuff to do.

The experience (and really, the entire day) was summed up by Florida sending in 7-foot-9 center Olivier Rioux, the tallest player in basketball history, for mop-up duty, to the utter bewilderment of Prairie View’s 6-foot-8 Hassane Diallo.

dying at Hassane Diallo and Olivier Rioux
— CJ Fogler (@cjzero.bsky.social) 2026-03-21T03:42:14.519Z

The giant gator got a rebound and a dunk, the third basket of his Florida career … and Diallo did get a block on Rioux, despite giving up 11 inches. (He’s not exactly “good” at “basketball,” although it’s easy to see why Florida is taking a shot on hoping he develops into something.)

🐶 (2) UConn, 82, 🪄 (15) Furman, 71

UConn’s Tarris Reed had 31 points and 27 rebounds; He’s the first player to have that exact statline as far back as Sports-Reference has regular season gamelogs. Two other players have had that statline in NCAA Tournament games; both are Hall of Famers who played in the 1960s (Jerry Lucas and Elvin Hayes.)

🐿️ (4) Minnesota, 75, 🧀 (13) Green Bay, 58

It looked like we might get an rare women’s tournament upset Friday as the Phoenix led the Gophers by four heading into the fourth quarter. It would’ve just been the ninth upset ever by a 13-seed or lower … but Minnesota outscored Green Bay by 21 in the fourth quarter.

🙋 (6) Tennessee, 78, 🦅 (11) Miami (OH), 56

The dream is over for our beloved RedHawks. After initially being mad they had to play in the First Four, I have now flipped around to being happy they got to win a tournament game in front of a raucous crowd in Dayton.

🐸 (3) TCU, 86, 🔱 (14) UC San Diego, 40

A triple-double for TCU’s Olivia Miles! She’s the third player to have multiple NCAA Tournament triple-doubles (for two separate teams, having done it as a freshman at Notre Dame as well.

😈 (3) Duke 81, 👯 (14) Charleston, 64

36 points for Charleston’s Taryn Barbot … in a 17-point loss where her team scored 64 total points. Sheesh, get her some help!

🏖️ Florida International, 76, 🎩 Stetson, 73

The second-best buzzer-beater of the day comes from the women’s NIT. (The Oweh finish is tough to beat.) FIU was trailing with 5 seconds left but Rhema Collins deflected Stetson’s inbounds pass, came down with the ball, took it upcourt herself, and hit the game-tying three to force OT