It’s time to believe.

The NCAA Tournament is upon us, and I have some bad news: It’s a bleak time for the little guy in college basketball. I’ve made March Madness upsets a personal beat of mine. I’ve been covering these teams, researching these teams, and making these predictions for about a decade. And there’s never been a bigger gap between high-major teams and everybody else in college basketball.

But this is March. Logic, reason, and everybody’s brackets are about to go directly into the trash.

First up, my annual upset picks video. I picked three teams — one 12 seed, one 13 seed, and one 14 seed — that I think are most likely to go on Cinderella runs. (LMAO, the thumbnail.)

Want more fun, deeply researched videos about teams and sports people aren’t talking enough about? Click here to subscribe to the Sports! YouTube channel.

And now, a brief preview of every 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Gonna be honest. I got a little bit carried away with this post. I thought I could complete it Sunday, and here it is Tuesday. It’s actually too large to send via email and it’s gonna get cut off at the bottom. But I think it’s the most complete guide to these teams on the internet … so please, share it with anyone you know who loves the tournament as much as you!

By sticking to 12-16 seeds, I left out some one-bid champions like South Florida and Utah State, as well as our friends at Miami (Ohio.) But I did write about them the other day!

Starting Friday, I’ll be writing daily newsletters every March Madness gameday through the end of the tournament. Here’s the link to subscribe, and … although I’m putting out this content for free, I hope you can tell that it takes A LOT of work, including paid editors (and, obviously, thumbnail artists) Click here to become a paid subscriber so I can keep making this stuff, and keep making it good.

– Rodger Sherman

Fact: The biggest indicator of whether a team is going to pull a big NCAA Tournament upset is whether they have a line of merch from our friends at Homefield Apparel. So many of our past heroes — Saint Peter’s, Fairleigh Dickinson, UC-Irvine — are Homefield Heroes. Here’s who to look out for in this year’s NCAA Tournament:

—Akron (I own the one with an upset kangaroo on it)
—Furman (I got like 3 of these after Furman won in 2023)
—Hawai’i (I own SO MUCH Hawai’i Homefield merch, so many great Rainbows)
—Howard
—Northern Iowa
—North Dakota State

🆙 Upset elevator pitch: A true mid-major powerhouse, they play a unique style tailor-made to mess with teams that don’t have a lot of time to prep. Also: THEY JUST DID THIS LAST YEAR.

🌎 Where they’re from: Lake Charles, Louisiana, about a half hour from the Texas border. Every time I have driven through here I get the strong urge to stop at the Cajun seafood place off the highway called STEAMBOAT BILL’S but I haven’t done it yet. Let me know if I should next time.

🕰️ March Memories: The Cowboys have gone to back-to-back-to-back NCAA Tournaments, but the highlight was last year’s win over 5th-ranked Clemson, a game that barely felt like an upset because McNeese led by as much as 24.

🛣️ How they got here: The bad news is most of last year’s team is gone, including head coach Will Wade, who left for NC State immediately after the end of their tourney run last year. But the Cowboys rebuilt quickly and won just as many games as they did last year. That said, they wouldn’t be in the tournament if not for a series of miracles in a triple-OT conference tournament matchup against UT-Rio Grande Valley. McNeese scored the final points of regulation, overtime, and double overtime before winning 84-80 in triple OT.

📆 Tournament matchup: 5-seed Vanderbilt

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 18 percent

📊 Record: 28-5, 19-3 Southland, 2-4 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 68, NET: 48. WAB: 35

🤓 Kenpom statistics of note: The Cowboys force turnovers on 24.6 percent of opposing possessions, LITERALLY NUMBER ONE IN THE COUNTRY. As you can imagine, they play aggressive defense and do press in the backcourt.

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: You’ve GOTTA watch Larry Johnson. (No relation! I haven’t seen him do the LJ arms but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t done it.) A springy wing who leads the Cowboys in scoring and rebounding, Johnson was a top-100 recruit who committed to Creighton but never played there due to an unspecified “violation of team rules.” At McNeese, Johnson was immediately, clearly better than the competition in the Southland. He broke Joe Dumars’ freshman scoring record at McNeese and has thrown down enough thunder dunks for a personal highlight reel. I haven’t seen him hold up the LJ arm gesture

🗣️ Head Coach: Bill Armstrong, in his first year as a college head coach. A longtime Will Wade assistant — who was fired alongside Wade by LSU over a bunch of stuff that’s legal now — Armstrong has bounced around multiple levels of the sport including a stint at a high school prep academy. His recruiting skill immediately paid dividends. In addition to LJ, McNeese landed 4-star Seton Hall transfer Garwey Dual and Oklahoma transfer Jacolb Fredson-Cole, who played for Armstrong in high school.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Joe Dumars!

❤️ Why You’ll Love Them: Remember McNeese’s student-manager, Amir Khan, who achieved viral fame in last year’s NCAA Tournament for rapping along to the team’s favorite songs? HE’S BACK! Khan briefly followed head coach Will Wade to NC State … but found out the school didn’t accept most of his credits, and told ESPN he missed his home and his favorite team. Here’s a new Aura tunnel walk … not safe for work….

🆒 Fun Fact: McNeese was considering leaving the Southland Conference, but stayed in exchange for a sweetheart deal that involved hosting the 2023-2026 conference championships in Lake Charles — specifically in the Cowboys’ home arena.. The Cowboys rode that homecourt advantage to back-to-back-to-back league championships.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: The Panthers check every box I’m looking for when I look for upsets. And they’ve got a coach who’s done this before, at this school.

🌎 Where they’re from: Cedar Falls, Iowa. Not to be confused with Cedar Rapids, which is also on the Cedar River. Honestly I’ve been to both places and I don’t really remember seeing any falls or rapids.

🕰️ March Memories: You know exactly what I’m about to post: Ali Farokhmanesh’s dagger to beat 1-seed Kansas in the second round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament. (YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS WITH THAT SHOT, the announcer said. He was, though.) But — scorching hot take incoming — that’s not even the best March Madness shot in UNI history! Why is everybody sleeping on Paul Jesperson’s 2016 half-court game-winner against Texas? (I get that the context of Farokhmanesh’s shot is cooler, since he could’ve just held the ball, and it was against a #1 team, and it got UNI to the Sweet 16, and also UNI suffered the greatest collapse in tournament history a few days after the Jesperson shot … but still! Half-court buzzer-beater!)

🛣️ How they got here: Analytics showed the Panthers as one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley, but a 5-game losing streak in January dropped UNI to the 6-seed in the conference. But they proved their class by winning four games in four days at Arch Madness — the first team ever to pull that off.

📆 Tournament matchup: 12-seed, playing 5-seed St. John’s

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 20 percent

📊 Record: 23-12, 11-9 MVC, 4-7 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 71. NET: 71. WAB: 98

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: Dude, there are SO MANY. I’ll stick to my favorite: The Panthers are #3 in Minutes Continuity, behind just Navy and Harvard.

🗣️ Head Coach: Ben Jacobson — who has been the Panthers’ coach since 2006! He’s a 5-time conference coach of the year and the winningest coach in conference history. He was in charge for most of the

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: Star point guard Trey Campbell is a senior from Cedar Falls, who went to Cedar Falls High School, who has spent four years starting for the Panthers. Not something you see a lot these days! It’s all been leading up to this.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Weirdly, all UNI’s memorable guys are coaches. Nick Nurse, Greg McDermott, Darien DeVries … and yes, current Colorado State head coach Ali Farokhmanesh.

🆒 Fun Fact: The doors of the UNI Dome are open if you’re ever passing through Cedar Falls. Don’t ask how I know.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: Winning games is important. And the Panthers win a LOT. They’re one of just six 30-win teams and have the nation’s longest active win streak at 14.

🌎 Where they’re from: High Point, North Carolina. The Home Furnishings Capital of the World!

🛣️ How they got here: The Panthers made their first trip to the NCAA Tournament last year and lost basically the entire squad — the coach, the stars, everything. But High Point is a school with an on-campus steakhouse and a giant Panther fountain, and apparently had the financial resources to whip up a new 30-win roster overnight.

📆 Tournament matchup: 12-seed, playing 5-seed Wisconsin.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 17 percent

📊 Record: 30-4, 15-1 Big South, 0-2 vs. Quad 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 92. NET: 75. WAB: 71.

🏆 Biggest win: The Panthers couldn’t schedule any major conference opponents but did easily beat Kenpom #105 UIC.

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: High Point somehow ranks fifth in turnover percentage on both offense and defense — they force turnovers on 21.9 percent of opposing possessions, but only commit turnovers on 13 percent of their own possessions.

🗣️ Head Coach: Flynn Clayman, who has to be the tallest coach in the country at 6-foot-9. This is his first year as a head coach anywhere — not bad!

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: Chase Johnston might be the best shooter in the country. He shot 47.4 percent on threes, #2 in the country … and didn’t even make a two-point shot this year. All threes, all the time. He only plays about 12 minutes per game and will spend the entire time with opposing players yelling SHOOTER SHOOTER SHOOTER and trailing him like he’s Steph.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Tubby Smith! Both a player and a head coach at High Point.

🆒 Fun Fact: I think High Point might be made for TikTok? They have university-operated fine dining options on the student meal plan (you can eat there once a month, so far as I can tell) and a community of “tiny homes” available as dorms … that actually kinda look like regular-sized homes.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: You know all the hype about Miami (Ohio)? This was actually the best team in the MAC this year. The Zips are a senior-heavy team with tourney experience.

🌎 Where they’re from: Akron, Ohio. Home to LeBron James, rubber, and kinda Steph Curry.

🦘 Mascot Madness: The Zips’ mascot is ZIPPY THE KANGAROO. The kangaroo logo, featuring a zippered pouch, was selected in 1953 after a contest. The mascot was originally called Mr. Zip … but eventually somebody pointed out that only female kangaroos have pouches, and Mr. Zip was rechristened as Zippy.

🛣️ How they got here: The Zips dominated the MAC, going 17-1 with a one-point loss to the undefeated Miami (Ohio) team we all know and love. But Miami lost in the first round of the MAC tournament, and the Zips took it from there.

📆 Tournament matchup: 12-seed, playing against 5-seed Texas Tech

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 22 percent … and that’s only kinda factoring in the loss of Red Raiders star JT Toppin.

📊 Record: 29-5, 17-1 MAC, 0-4 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 64. NET: 54. WAB: 53.

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Zips are eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage, which is kind of a cop-out because it means they’re good at everything.

🗣️ Head Coach: John Groce, who got Ohio to the Sweet 16 in 2012 before a disappointing stint at Illinois.

🕰️ March Memories: This is Akron’s fourth tournament trip in the last five years … but the school has never won a tournament game. They did have a seven-point second-half lead on UCLA in 2022.

🆒 Fun Fact: OK, I guess I didn’t really explain why the Zips are the Zips because I got excited about the kangaroo. The term “zipper” was invented by the B.F. Goodrich Company, based in Akron, in 1923. And life in the 1920s was so unpleasant that the invention of zippers really felt like something to get excited about. I mean, imagine, spending your whole life using awkward fasteners and buckles… you’d rename your sports things, too.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: You think they flew all the way across the ocean to lose?

🌎 Where they’re from: Honolulu. Travel is always an issue for Hawaiian sports teams — this time around, the Bows chose to stay in Las Vegas, the site of the Big West Tournament, after sealing their bid rather than flying home to Hawai’i. The women’s team apparently flew home in 2022 and regretted it and switched up when they made the tournament again in 2023. So they’re currently on a 2-week road trip, but with the games in Portland, they might be less jetlagged than Arkansas.

🌈 Mascot Madness: While Hawai’i teams have sometimes gone by just the Rainbows or just the Warriors, they’ve now decided to stick with the Rainbow Warriors. But those in the know call them the ‘Bows.

🛣️ How they got here: A lot of schools have announced celebrity GMs who may-or-may not be involved in the day-to-day operation of the program. The pound-for-pound MVP has to be Bows GM Patty Mills, who announced his role with the program last offseason before the school brought in four new starters that powered Hawai’i to their best season in a decade. They sealed their Big West Tournament championship win over UC-Irvine with a huge windmill dunk.

📆 Tournament matchup: 3-seed Arkansas

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 3 percent

📊 Record: 24-8, 14-6 Big West, 0-4 vs. Quads 1-2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 108. NET: 101. WAB: 95

🤓 Kenpom statistics of note: Opposing teams rarely shoot threes against Hawai’i and miss most of them. Opponents attempt just 32.4 percent of their shots from behind the arc against Hawai’i, the 15th-lowest rate in the country, and opponents hit on just 30.7 percent of those attempts, the 29th-lowest rate in the country.

🕰️ March Memories: The Bows’ last trip to the NCAA Tournament was in 2016, when they pulled a 13-over-4 upset over a Jaylen Brown-led Cal team.

🗣️ Head Coach: Eran Ganot, in his 11th year in charge of the Bows. Hawai’i sent a semi do-or-die ultimatum to Ganot, announcing he’d coach out last year on his contract without an extension … and he delivered!

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: The Bows’ star is 7-foot center Isaac “Big Fish” Johnson, whose nickname pre-dates his tenure at Hawai’i despite the plentiful fish on the islands. A top-100 prospect all the way back in 2019 (!!!), Johnson initially committed to Oregon but spent two years on a Mormon mission before playing for the Ducks. Johnson never broke through at Oregon or Utah State (although he did have 19 points and four blocks in USU’s NCAA Tournament appearance in 2023) but is finally showing signs of that recruiting hype now.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Anthony Carter!

🆒 Fun Fact: Hawaiian identity is very important to the Bows. They stand for Hawaiian state anthem Hawai’i Pono’i before home games along with the Star-Spangled Banner, and the team’s seniors received SO MANY LEI’S for senior night. Ganot often coaches in a lei as well.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: CBU has the type of guy March is made for: 5-foot-10 scoring machine Domonique Daniels, who seems to be a man on a mission this March.

🌎 Where they’re from: Riverside, California. A real classic of the “city in California that you’ve never thought of, but has a larger population than Cincinnati” genre.

⚔️ Mascot Madness: The name of the Lancer mascot is … you guessed it … Lance. Lance the Lancer.

🛣️ How they got here: In dramatic fashion. CBU trailed by six with two minutes to go in the WAC title game against Utah Valley, but Daniels hit back-to-back-to-back threes, the final one coming with just 17 seconds left. Then, Utah Valley bricked an uncontested game-tying dunk to seal the devastating come-from-ahead loss.

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: Daniels really does carry this team on his 5-foot-10 back. He averaged 23.2 points per game this season (5th in the nation, second among players in the NCAA Tournament behind AJ Dybantsa), topping out with 47 against Utah Valley in the regular season. He’s ridiculously fast and regularly dunks despite his height. I enjoyed this extremely enthusiastic commentary of his 41-point game in the conference semis, and the many crossovers and stepbacks involved in getting to 40.

📆 Tournament matchup: 4-seed Kansas.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 13 percent.

📊 Record: 25-8, 13-5 WAC, 2-5 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 106. NET: 98. WAB: 76

🤓 Statistic of note: Opponents hit just 5.4 threes per game against the Lancers, the second-fewest in the country.

🕰️ March Memories: NONE! They joined Division I in 2018 (and built a $75 million stadium to go with it) and this is their first trip to the dance, although they were a regular Division II tournament attendee. Congrats to our latest never-made-the-tourney club graduates.

🗣️ Head Coach: Rick Croy. He’s been the Lancers’ head coach since 2013, well before their move to Division I in 2018.

🕰️ March Memories: NONE! This is the Lancers’ first trip to the NCAA Tournament. Congrats to our latest Never-Made-The-Tourney graduates!

🆙 Upset elevator pitch: The Pride are a top-100 team that has already taken down power conference opponents this season — and they’ve already shown a knack for clutch moments this March.

🌎 Where they’re from: Hempstead, New York. ON Long Island, not IN Long Island.

🦁 Mascot Madness: Hofstra’s teams were called the “Flying Dutchmen” for decades but switched in the year 2000, leading to a variety of confused articles ahead of their last appearance in the NCAA Tournament in 2001. I am generally in favor of removing sports nicknames with ethnic-based mascots but actually think we need to lean in and go back to an extremely Dutch mascot here. A guy wearing clogs, riding a bicycle, holding a bouquet of tulips, wearing a bunch of Olympic speed skating gold medals on his neck.

🛣️ How they got here: The Pride won the CAA tournament, thanks in part to freshman Preston Edmead’s ridiculous banked game-winning three in the semis.

📆 Tournament matchup: 13-seed, playing against 15-seed Alabama.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 15 percent.

📊 Record: 24-10, 12-6 CAA, 2-3 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 88. NET: 88. WAB: 102

🏆 Biggest win: The Pride notched two road wins against ACC opponents, beating Syracuse in the dome on a late three by German Plotnikov and beating Pitt thanks to a career-high 36 points from Cruz Davis.

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: Kenpom added a new stat this year measuring the distance of teams’ two-point attempts — closer means lots of dunks and layups; farther means lots of mid-ranges. Hofstra’s opponents’ twos are an average 7.2 feet from the rim, the 6th-farthest of any team in the country.

🗣️ Head Coach: Speedy Claxton! The former NBA point guard (birth name: Craig) is Hofstra’s school’s all-time leader in assists and steals and returned to his alma mater after his playing career. He’s been on staff since 2013, getting promoted to the head job in 2021.

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: Cruz Davis, the CAA Player of the Year. A former 4-star prospect at guard, Davis was initially recruited by Rick Pitino to Iona and followed him to St. John’s; now a senior, he played the second-most minutes of any player in college basketball this season and averaged 20 points per game for the Pride.

🕰️ March Memories: The Pride are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since their back-to-back trips in 2000 and 2001 that got Jay Wright the Villanova job.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Why do I have to come up with a second guy to remember — their head coach is Speedy Claxton! (OK, fine. Wayne Chrebet.)

❤️ Why To Root For Them: The Pride deserve a March run after winning the CAA Tournament on March 10, 2020, earning an automatic bid to an NCAA Tournament that never happened.

🆙 Upset elevator pitch: I picked them last year. They’re due!

🌎 Where they’re from: Troy, Alabama, in Southeast Alabama. I have driven through Troy and let me tell you: It’s a long way from most things.

🏛️ Mascot Madness: I made this point last year, but … WHY WOULD YOU NAME YOURSELF AFTER A GROUP OF PEOPLE WHO FAMOUSLY LOST A WAR AND HAD THEIR CITY RAZED TO THE GROUND?

🛣️ How they got here: Troy is the back-to-back Sun Belt champ, but had to more-or-less entirely rebuild their entire roster after last year’s tourney trip.

📆 Tournament matchup: 4-seed Nebraska

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 8 percent

📊 Record: 22-11, 12-6 Sun Belt, 3-1 Quad 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 143. NET: 125. WAB: 130

🏆 Biggest win: The Trojans beat San Diego State 108-107 in a double OT game that should’ve been a Troy win in regulation — SDSU hit a half-courter at the buzzer. (Two days later, they lost a Trojan-off to USC 107-106 in triple OT — what a road trip!)

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Trojans average an upset-friendly 64.9 possessions per game, 309th-fastest in the country.

🗣️ Head Coach: Scott Cross, who was fired by UT-Arlington in 2018 and has now made more tournaments in the last two years (two) than UT-Arlington has made in school history (one.)

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: 6-foot-8 junior Thomas Dowd was one of just 15 players in college basketball to average a double-double this year; he posted 23 points and 13 boards in the conference title game against Georgia Southern.

🕰️ March Memories: Troy made the NCAA Tournament last year, and I picked them in my annual upset picks video. It didn’t go well. They’re actually ranked 50 spots lower on KenPom than last year but got bumped up from the 14 line to the 13 line.

🆒 Fun Fact: The Trojans may not have won an NCAA Tournament game, but in 1992, they set the all-time record for most points in a college basketball game, a bizarre 258-153 victory over DeVry, the online college which apparently had a basketball team at some point. The game is the subject of a legendary Jon Bois video and nothing I say can improve on what you’ll learn by just watching the video.

🆙 Upset elevator pitch: America’s snootiest conference actually has a strong history of March upsets — and the Quakers are the rare mid-major who might have the most talented player on the floor.

🌎 Where they’re from: Philadelphia. Penn is one of the five schools in the Big 5, a proto-league whose round-robin championship used to really mean a lot around Philly.

👴🏻 Mascot Madness: The Quakers are a Christian denomination that preaches equality, pacifism, and simplicity that practices silent worship. They do NOT make oatmeal. “Quakers” used to be a catch-all nickname for Philly sports teams — it was the original name of the Phillies —all the other teams dropped the nickname and Penn held on. The actual Quaker mascot is just a generic guy in Colonial garb — I kinda always thought it was supposed to be Ben Franklin, but he wasn’t even Quaker.

🛣️ How they got here: A magical Ivy League Tournament run. The Quakers beat Harvard in overtime on an AJ Levine layup, then beat Yale in the conference championship game behind FORTY FOUR POINTS by TJ Power, who hit back-to-back threes in the final ten seconds to force overtime.

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: Power was rated as the #17 recruit in the country out of high school, but barely saw the floor in brief stops at Duke and Virginia. Sunday’s game showed what the hype was all about — he’s 6-foot-9, shoots 45 percent from three, and a decent athlete who can drive with the ball.

📆 Tournament matchup: 3-seed Illinois

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 3 percent

📊 Record: 18-11, 9-5 Ivy, 0-6 vs. quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 150. NET: 148. WAB: 125

🤓 Statistic of note: The Quakers shoot 38.6 percent from three, 15th-best in the country.

🗣️ Head Coach: Fran McCaffery, who only took a year to rebuild his alma mater after being fired by Iowa last year. After a too-long stint at Iowa primarily marked by Fran getting REALLY MAD at various refs and coaching at least 7 of his adult sons, Fran has once again proven that he can really coach. This is his fifth head-coaching job and he’s brought all five schools to the NCAA Tournament — including Lehigh and Siena, also in this tourney.

🕰️ March Memories: The Quakers were one of the other teams in the 1979 Final Four with Magic Johnson and Larry Bird. They haven’t won a tournament game since their 1994 11-6 upset over Nebraska — but then again Nebraska still hasn’t won a tournament game, ever.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Matt Maloney!

🆒 Fun Fact: Penn’s home arena, the Palestra, is probably the most revered college hoops venue in the nation. It’s turning 100 years old this year and has hosted 50 NCAA Tournament games.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: They’re playing Virginia. Always helps.

🌎 Where they’re from: Dayton, Ohio. In 2022, they got to play a virtual home game in Dayton when the NCAA sent them to the First Four. Fun experience I’m sure, but I bet Wright State fans are glad the team is slightly too good for that this year.

🐺 Mascot Madness: The schools is named after the Wright Brothers — Wilbur is even in the school’s official logo — but, well, their cross-town rivals at the University of Dayton had already claimed the “Flyers” nickname decades before Wright State was founded. They couldn’t even go with like, “the Aviators” or “the Plane Guys” or something like that. IDK maybe like “the Inventors” or something? Anyway, they went with Raiders. The mascot is a wolf.

🛣️ How they got here: The Raiders won the Horizon League regular season but needed a 15-2 run to come back against Detroit Mercy in the league title game. Freshman Kellen Pickett had a huge block with 2 seconds to go to seal the win.

📆 Tournament matchup: 3-seed Virginia

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 7 percent

📊 Record: 23-11, 15-5 Horizon, 0-3 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 140. NET: 127. WAB: 137.

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: Horizon League defensive player of the year T.J. Burch ranks NUMBER ONE in the nation in steal percentage; he gets a steal on 5.8 percent of opposing possessions.

🗣️ Head Coach: Clint Sargent was a double-digit scorer at South Dakota State; his former coach, Scott Nagy, hired him as an assistant at Wright State and Sargent got promoted to the head job last year.

🕰️ March Memories: The Raiders have never won a Round of 64 game but DID win the 1983 Division II championship.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: VITALY POTAPENKO!

🆒 Fun Fact: Wright State’s official Facebook page brags about having the “#1 Underground Tunnel System” but let’s see how the next AP Underground Tunnels poll shakes out.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: They’ve already beaten the FBI this year. A 3-seed seems quaint by comparison.

🌎 Where they’re from: Kennesaw, Georgia, in the northwest burbs of Atlanta. Google says its a half-hour to downtown but I’ve driven in Atlanta and I’m saying there’s no way.

🦉 Mascot Madness: KSU’s rallying cry is HOOTY HOO, because of owls and OutKast. Kennesaw State used to have a live owl mascot named Sturgis but lost the rights to continue using Sturgis after a contract dispute with the owls’ owner. They should probably reach out to Big Boi, who owns multiple owls, for a potential replacement.

🛣️ How they got here: It looked like the Owls might be cooked: Their leading scorer, Simeon Cottie, was indicted in January as part of the FBI’s point-shaving investigation; Cottie was easily the most prominent active player involved in the investigation; he was literally named conference player of the week two days before his indictment. (The charges stem from a 2024 game where Cottie underperformed so KSU failed to cover first-half spread.) The Owls lost five of seven after Cottie left the team, but regrouped and won the C-USA Tournament as a six seed.

📆 Tournament matchup: 3-seed Gonzaga

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 4 percent

📊 Record: 21-13, 10-10 C-USA, 0-4 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 169. NET: 161. WAB: 164.

🤓 Statistic of note: KSU ranks second in the nation with 27.1 free throws attempted per game. Slop it up!

🗣️ Head Coach: Antoine Pettway, who hit a game-winning runner for Alabama in the first round of the 2004 NCAA Tournament, sparking a Tide run that went all the way to the Elite Eight. Pettway spent 18 years as an Alabama assistant before KSU gave him his first head coaching gig in 2023.

🕰️ March Memories: The Owls made their first NCAA Tournament three years ago. The head coach from that team, Amir Abdur-Rahim, died just a year later at 43 years old; Pettway has made sure to credit the late Abdur-Rahim for building this team’s foundation.

⛹️‍♂️ Who's HIM?: I am of no relation, to leading rebounder Frankquon Sherman, but he does seem to be continuing in the Sherman family tradition of strong performances in the Atlanta metro area.

🆒 Fun Fact: I was gonna put the leading scorer getting indicted in this section but I decided it stretched the bounds of “fun.”

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: Decent basketball team. (Peek behind the curtain: This is the 22nd and final capsule I’m writing, so it might be a little less flowery than others.)

🌎 Where they’re from: They’re from Fargo, North Dakota, unlike the vast majority of characters and scenes in the movie Fargo and the TV show Fargo.

🛣️ How they got here: No fun story here, just a lot of wins.

📆 Tournament matchup: 3-seed Michigan State

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 8 percent

📊 Record: 27-7, 14-2 Summit, 0-1 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 113. NET: 114. WAB: 92.

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Bison rebound 74.3 percent of opposing misses, the 17th-best rate in the country.

🗣️ Head Coach: Dave Richman, a North Dakotan and NDSU alum, has been the Bison’s head coach since 2014 and has been on staff since 2003. He makes about $260,000 per open records requests, which objectively makes him a Richman compared to the average American but is on the lower end of salaries for Division I head coaches.

🕰️ March Memories: NDSU shocked Oklahoma in 2014, forcing overtime on a Lawrence Alexander three and holding on for dear life despite players fouling out in OT.

🆒 Fun Fact: While NDSU’s championship football team moves up to the big leagues in football, the hoops team will still be in the Summit League, playing against schools that will probably hate their guts even more than usual for going big-time on the gridiron.

🆙 Upset elevator pitch: They’re looking to turn a great Starch Madness run into a great March Madness run. And we all know carbs are great fuel for long runs!

🌎 Where they’re from: Moscow, Idaho. (Nobody knows why it’s named that.) It’s just 10 minutes from Wazzu, on the other side of the Washington-Idaho border.

🛣️ How they got here: The Vandals were the 7-seed in the Big Sky tournament — they call it Starch Madness, because it’s in Idaho — but won four games in five days to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990.

⚔️ Mascot Madness: Sadly, modeled after the “fierce Germanic tribe” rather than the concept of vandalism — he’s got a cool hat, but no spray paint. The mascot is named Joe, which is a pretty weird name for an ancient Germanic tribesman.

📆 Tournament matchup: 2-seed Houston.

🎲 Kenpom Chance of victory: 3 percent.

📊 Record: 21-14, 9-9 Big Sky, 0-3 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 145. NET: 145. WAB: 200

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Vandals rebound 75.8 percent of opposing missed shots, the fifth-best percentage in the nation.

🗣️Head Coach: Alex Pribble, in his first D1 coaching job.

🕰️ March Memories: The Vandals made the 1982 Sweet 16 after beating Iowa on a buzzer-beater in overtime. That game was played at Washington State — basically a home court for the Vandals.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Gus Johnson! (The NBA Hall-of-Famer, not the announcer.)

🆒 Fun Fact: Since 2021 Idaho has played in a new venue built from locally grown wood — HUGE W for sustainability nerds, let’s go!

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: This team’s got a little bit less juice than the one which beat UVA three years ago, but they’ve got the same coach, the same playing style, and some roster overlap.

🌎 Where they’re from: Greenville, South Carolina. Not to be confused with Greenville, North Carolina, which is where ECU is located.

🧙 Mascot Madness: A paladin is a medieval knight, although I feel like 97 percent of the time someone says the word “paladin” in modern times, they’re playing Dungeons and Dragons. Furman’s official athletics website does not make any mention of magic, but I’m pretty sure they have magic in various games. Furman’s teams are often referred to as the Dins, although I’m gonna ignore that and call them the Pals or the Lads.

🕰️ March Memories: In 2023, Furman broke a 43-year tourney drought and then stunned Virginia with one of the most ridiculous buzzer-beating sequences in tournament history, forcing a steal and getting the ball to JP Pegues, who nailed a 35-footer for the win. (I picked them in my upsets video that year, not to brag or anything.)

🛣️ How they got here: The Pals were the 6-seed in the SoCon Tournament and looked like they were headed for a loss in the semifinals against UNC-Greensboro, but heroics from freshman Alex Wilkins — 28 second-half points! — rallied the Lads back from a double-digit deficit.

📆 Tournament matchup: 2-seed UConn

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 4 percent

📊 Record: 22-12, 10-8 SoCon, 0-3 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 190. NET: 186. WAB: 166

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Lads are actually the fifth-tallest team in college basketball. They’ve also got two brothers named “Bowser,” which makes them seem even bigger.

🗣️Head Coach: Bob Richey, who has led the Pals since 2017. You get the sense that at some point, some high-major school is gonna pay the 42-year old Richey to lead their program.

⛹️‍♂️Who's HIM?: Furman clearly got a steal in freshman Alex Wilkins, the first freshman ever to start for Richey. The Massachusetts native led the Pals with 17.7 points and 4.7 rebounds per game.

🆒 Fun Fact: Furman really leans into the fact that their initials are “FU,” including a popular “FU All The Time” cheer.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: They’ve got a guy who hit TEN threes in a conference championship game. Do that again!

🦁 Mascot Madness: The Royals? They’re lions. The Pride? They were lions too. Come on guys. Be more literal.

🌎 Where they’re from: Charlotte, North Carolina. Notably, they are NOT from Queens, the borough of New York City, and this is not the school where Jerry Seinfeld went to college.)

🛣️ How they got here: The Royals beat top-seeded Central Arkansas in overtime of the A-Sun championship game thanks to ten — TEN — threes by senior Chris Ashby.

📆 Tournament matchup: 2-seed Purdue.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 2 percent.

🕰️ March Memories: None! Congrats on graduating from the Never Made The Tourney Club! This was the Royals’ first year of tournament eligibility after moving up from Division II — they’re just the fourth team ever to make the tournament in their first year of eligibility.

📊 Record: 21-13, 13-5 A-Sun, 0-6 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 181. NET: 189. WAB: 137.

🤓 Statistic of note: The Royals finished 20th in 3-pointers made this year — and to pull an upset, you’re gonna shoot some threes.

🗣️Head Coach: Grant Leonard, who has worked at the school since before they moved up from Division II. He owns a very good Christmas sweater.

⛹️‍♂️Who's HIM?: Nasir Mann leads the Royals in scoring and rebounding. He’s from The Villages in Florida, which honestly surprises me because I didn’t know they allowed young people there. His older brother, Tre, plays for the Charlotte Hornets, which has allowed the brothers to go to each other’s games.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: In his first year at his first head coaching job, Nolan Smith led the Tigers to regular season and conference tournament championships and their first NCAA tournament trip in over 30 years.

🌎 Where they’re from: Nashville.

📆 Tournament matchup: 2-seed Iowa State.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 3 percent

📊 Record: 23-9, 15-5 OVC, 1-2 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 186, NET: 173, WAB, 114

🏆Biggest win: The Tigers beat UNLV 63-60 in Las Vegas in December.

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Tigers force steals on 12.7 percent of opposing possessions, 12th in the country.

🗣️Head Coach: Nolan Smith — the point guard from the Duke team that won the 2010 championship! It’s his first year as a head coach anywhere, and he’s off to a grea tstart.

🕰️ March Memories: The Tigers won back-to-back-to-back NAIA national championships in the 1950s with future NBA Hall-of-Famer Dick Barnett, but haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1994.

👴🏻 Remembering A Guy: Anthony Mason!

⛹️‍♂️Who's HIM?: Senior wing Aaron Nkrumah won OVC player of the year — an incredible rise for a player who began his career at Division III Worcester State. Nkrumah was second in the nation in steals per game this season

🆒 Fun Facts: The TSU marching band, The Aristocrat Of Bands, won a Grammy in 2023 for their album The Urban Hymnal.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: Their head coach knows a thing or two about March Madness.

🌎 Where they’re from: Albany, New York. I should know at least one thing about Albany because I have lived most of my life in the state of New York. Sorry! I got nothing.

🐶 Mascot Madness: Siena is a Catholic school named in honor of St. Bernardino of Siena, a 15th-century Italian priest … whose name in English would be “St. Bernard” … so Siena has A LIVE SAINT BERNARD MASCOT!!!!!! His name is Baloo and he is GIGANTIC and SLEEPY and leads the Saints onto the court before home games! Baloo is the best mascot in the NCAA Tournament and I will pet him, in this life or the next.

🛣️ How they got here: Things have totally flipped for the Saints in two years under first-time head coach Gerry McNamara. They went 4-28 the year before McNamara took over and now they’re headed to the big dance.

📆 Tournament matchup: 1-seed Duke

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 1 percent

📊 Record: 23-11, 13-7 MAAC, 0-1 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 192. NET: 182. WAB: 155

🤓 Kenpom statistic of note: The Saints’ offensive possessions average 19.2 seconds, the 341st-longest in the country — a glacial, upset-friendly pace.

🗣️Head Coach: That’s right, it’s Syracuse legend Gerry McNamara! McNamara was the point guard for the 2003 championship team and led the Orange on a memorable run to the 2006 Big East Tournament title. McNamara is understandably under consideration to become Syracuse’s next head coach after they fired Adrian Autry.

⛹️‍♂️Who's HIM?: Sophomore Gavin Doty played 116 of 120 minutes in the MAAC Tournament led the team in scoring in all three games. He wears #4 — previously retired for all-time scoring leader Marc “Show Time” Brown, but Brown OK-ed the temporary un-retirement. Doty was the Kenpom MVP of 14 Siena games this year, tied for 7th-most in the country.

🕰️ March Memories: Siena has a stunningly good March Madness record — four wins in six trips to the dance. Two of those were upsets (over 3-seed Stanford in 1989; over 4-seed Vanderbilt in 2008) but the most memorable win was the 2009 classic against Ohio State, when Ronald Moore hit a game-tying three in overtime and then a game-winning three from the same spot in double-overtime. It wasn’t really that big of an upset though — the Saints were a 9-seed.

🆒 Fun Fact: Technically, Saint Bernards are named after It literally does not matter that Saint Bernards are named after a different St. Bernard from one the school honors. Guess what! Don’t care! Great dog!

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: I mean … they did it once before …

🌎 Where they’re from: Catonsville, Maryland. Which is in Baltimore County.

🛣️ How they got here: The Retrievers were the #1 seed in the America East Tournament and beat Vermont in the championship thanks to 33 points on 7-of-9 3-point shooting from DJ Armstrong.

🕰️ March Memories: UMBC famously became the first 16-seed to beat a 1-seed in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, thumping Virginia 74-54 in one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history. (I still can’t believe they won by TWENTY. I always thought an upset like that would be close!)This is their first tourney appearance since.

🦮 Mascot Madness: The UMBC Retriever is a Chesapeake Bay Retriever, although I’m sure they appreciate support from all goldens and labs. It’s been a big spring for the breed — a Chessie won reserve Best in Show at Westminster. UMBC doesn’t have an official live mascot but there are many pictures of the costumed version of the Retriever hanging out with pups.

📆 Tournament matchup: First Four vs. Howard

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 54 percent

📊 Record: 24-8, 14-2 America East, 0-4 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 185, NET: 202, WAB: 107

🤓 Statistic of note: The Retrievers commit just 13.4 fouls per game, the second-fewest in Division I.

🗣️Head Coach: Jim Ferry, the coach who led LIU to their last NCAA Tournament appearance.

🆒 Fun Fact: Ryan Odom, the head coach who led the Retrievers in their famous win over Virginia in 2018 is now the head coach at UVA.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: Three First Four trips in four years for the Bison. When they finally get out of Dayton, it’s over for the 1-seeds.

🌎 Where they’re from: Washington, DC. Georgetown wasn’t gonna do it, somebody from DC had to.

🛣️ How they got here: The Bison were far-and-away the best team in the MEAC — more than 100 spots clear of anybody else in the league on Kenpom.

📆 Tournament matchup: First Four vs. UMBC.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 4 percent

📊 Record: 23-10, 11-3 MEAC, 1-4 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 207. NET: 201. WAB: 132.

🏆Biggest win: The Bison beat UNC-Wilmington, the #1 seed in the CAA, in a December road game.

🤓 Statistics of note: Howard ranks top-10 in turnovers forced per game (15.1) and fewest 3-pointers allowed per game (5.7).

🗣️Head Coach: Kenny Blakeney, a Duke guard in the 1990s who worked as an assistant at eight different schools before Howard gave him a shot at the head job in 2019. It’s worked out, as the Bison have been to more tournaments under Blakeney (three) than in the rest of the school’s history (two.)

⛹️‍♂️Who's HIM?: 5th-year guard Bryce Harris was the MEAC Player of the Year; he was injured last season and it was the one blip in the Bison’s run of three tourney trips in four years.

🆒 Fun Fact: Howard has never won an NCAA Tournament game, but alum Gus Johnson — the announcer, not the NBA Hall of Famer — has made his mark on March enough highlight reel calls to fill a 7-minute video. Johnson played for the Bison baseball team; oddly I can’t picture him announcing a baseball game.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: New Yorkers are irrationally confident, which is probably the most important thing for a 16-seed to be.

🌎 Where they’re from: Brooklyn. Which is TECHNICALLY a part of the geographical island called Long Island but nobody in the history of Brooklyn has ever said “yeah I live on Long Island.” (Throw in “Queens” not being from Queens and this tourney has some NYC geography identity crisis.)

🛣️ How they got here: Head coach Rod Strickland has completely turned this program. When he took over in 2022, the Sharks went 3-26 and were ranked 363rd out of 363 teams by Ken Pomeroy; this year they won the Northeast Conference regular season title and conference tournament.

🦈 Mascot Madness: This team used to be the LIU-Brooklyn Blackbirds, but the Brooklyn campus merged with LIU-Post (actually on Long Island!) in 2019, rebranding as the Sharks. They’re the only Sharks in Division I and their mascot is — good name alert — Finley.

📆 Tournament matchup: playing 1-seed Arizona.

🎲 Kenpom chance of victory: 0.4 percent.

📊 Record: 24-10, 15-3 NEC, 0-4 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 216. NET: 197. WAB: 122

🗣️Head Coach: Rod Strickland! This is the first head coaching job for the longtime NBA point guard (17 seasons!) and Guy Referenced By The Wu-Tang Clan. He’d previously worked under John Calipari at Kentucky and Memphis and helped lead the G-League’s Ignite program.

Fun Fact The team’s rallying cry is FINS UP, created entirely by two random New Yorkers who decided to become LIU fans after going to a game and seeing how depressing it was.

Upset Elevator Pitch: They might have the clutchest player in the country, who already drained a March Madness buzzer-beater.

📍🌎Where they’re from: Bethlehem, PA. Christmas City USA!

🚂 Mascot Madness: Lehigh inexplicably switched mascots from the Engineers to the Mountain Hawks in 1995. Even though a “Mountain Hawk” isn’t even a real thing, Pennsyvania only has mini-mountains,, and ENGINEERS IS COOL AS HELL AS A NICKNAME COME ON! Was the mascot deemed insensitive towards engineers? I’m bringing it back.

🕰️ March Memories: Lehigh’s last trip to the NCAA Tournament in 2012 went down in history when the 15-seeded Engineers beat the Blue Devils behind 30 points from C.J. McCollum. Back in the present day, Lehigh fans chanted WE WANT DUKE at the Patriot League title game … and honestly … looking at the bracketologists … it really might happen …

🛣️ How they got here: One fun thing about the Patriot League is that it’s one of the last leagues where home teams host conference tournament games. That meant Lehigh’s fans got to see an early March Moment with a 50-foot buzzer-beater in the Patriot League semifinals. And then after Boston University knocked out top-seeded Navy, they got to see Lehigh clinch their NCAA Tournament bid!

📆 Tournament matchup: First Four against Prairie View A&M

📊 Record: 18-16, 11-7 Patriot League, 0-3 vs. Quads 1/2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 284 😬😬😬😬😬. NET: 275. WAB: 243

🤓 Statistic of note: Lehigh went to SEVEN overtime games this year, including two double-OT games. In addition to that game-winner, Whitlock hit a handful of shots to force OT in various games. I think three or four. Honestly I’ve written about 5000 words about college basketball so far and I lost track.

🗣️Head Coach: Brett Reed has been the Chief Engineer since 2006. This might be their first tourney trip since that 2012 Duke upset, but.. well… you upset Duke, you get your chance to work your way back.

⛹️‍♂️Who's HIM?: In case you couldn’t tell: the dude is Nasir Whitlock. He’s 18th in the nation in scoring at 21 points per game, shoots 45 percent from three, and also leads the ‘Neers in assists.

🆒 Fun Fact: Lehigh grad Jesse Reno invented the escalator, making him the mortal enemy of former UConn coach Kevin Ollie.

🆙 Upset Elevator Pitch: They’ve already beaten a 1-seed this March.

🌎 Where they’re from: Prairie View, Texas, about an hour outside of Houston. My understanding is that there are, in fact, prairies available for viewing.

🛣️ How they got here: The Panthers were the 8-seed in the SWAC Tournament, but went on a heck of a run, including a stunning comeback win against 1-seed Bethune-Cookman lowest seed to win a conference tournament this year.

📆 Tournament matchup: First Four vs. Lehigh

📊 Record: 18-17, 9-9 SWAC, 0-5 vs. Quads 1-2

💻 Analytics: Kenpom: 288. NET: 300. WAB: 257.

🤓 Statistic of note: The Panthers LED THE NATION in free throw attempts — not bad for a 16-seed! Shot 75.3 percent on them, too.

🗣️Head Coach: Byron Smith, who’s been in charge since 2016. A former Houston hooper, he’s worked just about everywhere — including a stint as head coach of the Harlem Globetrotters in 2002-03. That was during an era when the semi-farcical hoops team somewhat regularly played straight exhibition games against college teams — if I’m getting my dates right, Smith was in charge when the Trotters beat Purdue.

⛹️‍♂️Who’s Him?: It’s all Dontae Horne for the Panthers. The senior guard averages 20 points and hit 30 in the upset win over Bethune-Cookman; he was named first-team all-conference despite the Panthers finishing in eighth place.

🕰️ March Memories: The Panthers have never won a D1 tournament game — not even the First Four — but DID win an NAIA national championship in 1962 with future Hall of Famer Zelmo Beaty. (Who I may have thought was a Yugoslavian guy before writing this post.)

❤️ Why to root for them: At underfunded HBCUs like PVAMU, it often feels like teams aren’t just playing their opponents, but their own administrations and the entire college sports system. Smith has openly complained that his players aren’t receiving adequate medical treatment this season, although he later apologized.